New Zealand Population
In New Zealand, the current population sits at 4.5 million people (Statistics NZ, 2014). Any change in the New Zealand population could affect the availability of land for dairy farms. As a result, it would cause significant impacts to both the dairy industry and butter production.
Worst case: Population in New Zealand increases rapidly, thus, people spreading out to rural areas where dairy farms are located.
Best case: The New Zealand population remains at the current state.
According to Bascand (2012), the New Zealand population is projected to increase in the future but at a lower rate as seen below in figure 1. Bascand also mentioned that the population in mid 2020s and 2061 is projected to be five million and six million, respectively. He also pointed out that the estimated yearly growth in 2050s will be 0.4%. This increase in population is a result of natural growth and increased net migration (Bascand, 2012).
Figure 1
The National infrastructure plan (2011) also recognises that the population in New Zealand will increase in the future. In addition, the projected population was stated to be over 5 million in 2031. The plan also mentions that there will be greater variation in the population growth occurring from natural increase and net migration. It is projected that the population will grow in most regions of New Zealand (National Infrastructure plan, 2011).
According to Fox (2012), there are both optimistic and pessimistic projections of what the world population will be in the next 20 years. The low end projection is 4.8 million while the high end population projected is 6 million. It was also recognised that 86% of the population live in urban areas, with a growing preference to live in urban areas rather than rural (Fox, 2012).
Poot (2012) points out that the future population in rural areas will decline as more people are living in urban areas. He also recognised that the economic transformation that leaves rural areas less populated may allow for yield growth as natural resources are sustained (Poot, 2012).
Conclusion:
To conclude, the research undertaken points me towards the belief that the New Zealand population will increase in 50 years’ time. There is limited information available on the future population of New Zealand. However, the information used is reliable as it was sourced from Statistics New Zealand. Therefore, I can predict quite confidently that there is a 90% chance that the New Zealand population will increase in 50 years’ time. It is difficult to be 100% certain as the future always holds many uncertainty. However, it is uncertain by how much the New Zealand population will increase.
An increase in the population size can have a dramatic effect on dairy farms. This is because there are more people present; hence, there will be more competition for land. However, the above information found implies that even though there may be increased population, people prefer to live in urban areas. This means that dairy farmers may not be affected and in fact may benefit as more land is available with less competition. This means dairy farmers can expand and have more pastures so milk production can increase. In return, more milk will mean more butter can be produced and increased growth in butter production. Yet, if the population continues to grow and people are moving to urban areas it will become over populated. As a result, people may start to disperse slowly into rural areas and expand the borders of urban areas. Land availability will decrease for dairy farmers and therefore, less pastures available for cows will cause a decrease in milk production. The low supply of milk will result in a price increase. Therefore, the dairy industry will face a shortage of milk, hence, higher cost of production, thus resulting in less butter being produced.
By Arwa Al-Bahadly
