Climate Change
Climate change is a vital challenge in regards to butter production and needs to be taken into consideration. This is because butter production relies on cow’s milk. With climate change cows can be put to risk and the pastures cows feed from can also be affected.
Worst case: The climate will change considerably causing extreme floods and droughts that will kill the cows.
Best case: Climate change will not occur and we will continue to live in the same climate that we are today.
According to Kenny (2005), climate change will cause the increase of chances for extreme weather conditions such as a drought, heavy rainfall and high temperatures. The predicted mid to high temperature in 2080 is a lot higher than any temperature that is currently experienced today. With warmer weather, there is a greater chance of survival for some of the pests (Kenny, 2005). Therefore, there will be increased problems faced in biosecurity. It is expected that the west of New Zealand will experience increased rainfall, hence, wetter weather conditions. On the other hand, the east will experience decreased rainfall, hence, drier weather conditions. With higher temperatures and more carbon dioxide available in the future, pasture yield in New Zealand is predicted to increase by 10-20% (Kenny, 2005). However, increase in pasture yield will also be determined by water availability. Pasture composition may be of lower quality as more subtropical grasses will be present (Kenny, 2005).
Warrick, Kenny and Harman (2001) similarly mention that the three things that determine the composition and productivity of New Zealand’s pastures are temperature, level of carbon dioxide and rainfall. With increased temperature and carbon dioxide it means that more photosynthesis can occur, thus, increasing pasture yield. Water is also important and needed for pasture yield to increase and for photosynthesis to occur. Thus, regions with low rainfall need to put methods in place such as irrigation. If limited water is available and the grounds are not moist the production of pasture will be negatively affected. Increased temperature would also have an effect on pasture composition and may favour the C4 species over the C3 species (Warrick, Kenny & Harman, 2001). This is because they have higher optimum temperature for some processes such as photosynthesis. The issue with C4 species are low yielding in the cold months and is said to give animals poor performance attributes (Warrick, Kenny & Harman, 2001).
Renwick et al. (2013) used two models to portray the effect of global warming in New Zealand. The first model, Canadian climate, predicts large warming of 4.4 degrees. The second, the Planck model, predicts warming of 3.3 degrees. Both models display the fact that there will be higher temperatures in the future. In addition, they also showed that the west would have more precipitation, while the east will have decreased precipitation. The summer throughout the country was seen to be drier according to the Canadian climate centre model. On the other hand, no considerable change for the Planck model was shown (Renwick et al., 2013). The pasture growth in winter increased due to the warmer temperature, while decreasing in the summer due to dry soil. Pasture production in summer will decrease if irrigation is not put in place. With climate change causing high temperatures, dairy cows will experience great thermal stress. This will negatively affect the cow’s health, reproduction and milk production (Renwick et al., 2013).
According to Bajagai (2011), climate change can affect animals in many ways such as productivity, growth and likeliness of being diagnosed with a disease. These effects of climate change are a result of the change in temperature. With increase in the temperature dairy cattle’s are going to be negatively affected in its wellbeing and reproduction (Bajagai, 2011). Dairy cattle will then have low performance, as well as the chance of epidemic of novel diseases occurring. Higher temperatures will cause thermal stress in cows and this will then cause milk production to fall (Bajagai, 2011).
Conclusion
To conclude, the research undertaken along with the sources used above point me towards the same conclusion. In the next 50 years, climate change will cause temperatures to increase and changes in rainfall patterns dependant on the region. It can be predicted with confidence that there is a 90% chance that temperatures will increase and rainfall patterns will change. This prediction is based on the fact that all the research conducted agreed on this outcome. It is difficult to be 100% certain as there are many possibilities for events to happen in the future. However, the level of which the temperature will increase in the future is uncertain. This will heavily rely on human behaviour along with the measures taken to reduce greenhouse gases.
Climate change in the future will have a considerable effect on both the dairy industry and butter production. The reason for this is that increased temperature and change in rainfall patterns affect the pasture growth. Even though there will be higher temperatures in the future, thus, increasing pasture yield (if water is available/irrigation), the pasture will be of lower quality. As a result, cows will have lower quality feeds, which may then decrease their performance, hence, decreased milk production. In addition, the effect of the temperature increase results in an increased likeliness of pests and diseases. Consequently, cows will be more prone to getting ill and in some cases cause death. In turn, this will cause a decrease in milk production. Another reason for lower milk production is that high temperature cause’s thermal stress for cows. This will lower productivity due to lower performance and less reproduction. Decreased milk production means less milk is available for the dairy industry to purchase. The low supply of milk available would mean the prices would go up and production costs to rise. Furthermore, the growth of butter production will go down due to fewer raw materials. However, dairy farmers could adapt to the climate change in the future and would not have to face these issues.
By Arwa Al-Bahadly